A new study throws a big bucket of cold water on anyone still clinging to one of the many conspiracy theories out there.
Conspiracy theories are woven into the fabric of American pop culture, but a new study says they’re all pretty much nonsense.
From the Kennedy assassination to the moon landing to Roswell, there are more conspiracy theories than there are minutes in the day, it seems — and they’re all equally unlikely, a new study claims according to a BBC report.
The reality is that it is extremely difficult to keep a conspiracy under wraps, because at least one of the conspirators, and most likely many, will eventually blow the lid off the giant lie at some point, based on how long it takes real conspiracies to be revealed on average.
The study was led by Dr. David Grimes of Oxford University figured out an equation to figure this out and published his findings in the PLOS One Journal.
Three factors are at play in the calculation: the number of conspirators or people who know about the conspiracy, the length of time between when the conspiracy took place and it unraveled, and the likelihood of the conspiracy failing altogether.
He then applied this calculation to four famous conspiracy theories out there: the moon landing, climate change, vaccines and autism, and a supposed cure for cancer that has been suppressed by the pharmaceutical industry.
The analysis by Grimes shows all of them should have been revealed long ago if they had actually happened. It would have taken about 3.7 years for the moon landing, 3.7 to 26.8 years for climate change to be revealed as a fraud, and 3.2 to 34.8 years for a discovery of a link between autism and vaccines, and 3.2 years for the cancer conspiracy to unravel, according to the report.